Analysts revise methods, find no metro Phoenix population rise since 2007

[Source: Catherine Reagor, Arizona Republic] — Metropolitan Phoenix’s population has remained basically flat since 2007.  That calculation will generate its own set of questions in an area with an economy based on growth.  At the same time, it may be the first accurate estimate of population growth here in years.

This latest population estimate is the conclusion of an 18-month analysis by more than 30 of the state’s top economists and business and government leaders, who are trying to fix Arizona’s method for tracking population.  Their report, “Influx/Outflux: Metropolitan Phoenix,” was presented Tuesday at an Urban Land Institute Arizona meeting.  Problems with the formula used to track the number of people moving in and out of Arizona in recent years led to inflated population figures.  This exacerbated shortfalls in a state budget built on sales-tax projections.

Authors of the study used a new formula based on different data.  Results of the 2010 census will be the best measure of the new formula’s accuracy.  “Clearly, we don’t know exactly how many people we have,” said Rick Brammer, a partner with Applied Economics.  [Note: Read the full article at Analysts revise methods, find no metro Phoenix population rise since 2007.]

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